The weather makers and global warming

“The spotlight thus falls on political elites,administrative mandarins,and scientific advisors.Here is their genuine opportunity ,not just to act with political maturity but to take a giant leapon behalf of humanity.Can they break with all the vested interests ,the inertial forces,the conventional wisdoms,which are the historical lot of those in power ,even while these have now lost all value ? Through some Damascene vision might they at this late hour provide not only redemption for themselves ,but for the rest of humanity too ? One thing ,though,is sure:Little time is left.” (Mark Levine and David Cromwell June 2007 .Preface Surviving climate change .The struggle to avert global catastrophe.Pluto press 2007)

The major trends that are shaping our future are recognized as the food trends,the energy and climate trends,economic trends ,transportation trends,health and social trends and conflict and peace trends.The year 2004 was a record breaker of expansion of world economy at a 5 % rate and consumption and production of everything from grain to meat and steel and oil rose to heights.The sudden shift was summed up by the achievement of China in steel production.The global grain harvest shot up by 8 % and rises in consumption and change in diet pattern occurred.By this the grain reserves became very low at the end of the year leaving the year vulnerable to a food shortage and high prices if the 2005 harvests were hurt by adverse weather.Total carbon emissions and atmospheric carbon dioxide accelerated and 2004 was the foutrth warmest year ever recorded and the 10 warmest years in last 120 years were after 1990.Rise in temperature melted the polar icecaps,and glaciers .Thinning the ice of arctic is happening and by 2100 the arctic ocean is predicted to be ice-free.The collapse of the icesheets of Greenland and Antartica causes a rise in sea level.The worlds ecological system is in danger as human forces are impinging on coral reefs ,tropical forests and other critical natural systems.1/4th of mammals and ½ of the world’s wetlands are already lost to us.By the 2004 December Tsunami ,the importance of the preservation of wetlands and the coral reefs which are key ecosystems of the globe were recognized.The severe damage to wetlands in the name of development and also of coral reefs are pointed out as reasons for the calamity.
Grain harvest in 2004 :-2049 tons as against 800 tons in 1960.After the declining harvests of the five years (in previous 7 yrs)wheat was 11 5 more than the 2003 harvest.United nations declared the year as international year of the rice.The rice demand always outpaces its production and it is this one crop which actually gives aawareness about a pending food crisis.Rice is 20 % of the world’s energy supply in calories directly.Wheat is 19 % and corn 5%.Since demand exceeded production since four consecutive years china,India and Pakistan(major rice growers)pushed prices higherGlobal rice stocks dropped .People are hungry not because of global shortage as such but by the lack of regional sustenance farming and lack of purchasing power whenprices go high.Hunger kills more than 5 million children each year ,roughly one child every second(pp 22 Vital signs 2005-2006 world watch institute)
Energy and climate trends:-
1 Fossil fuel use surges
2.Nuclear power rises once more
3.Global wind growth continues
4.solar energy markets booming
5.biofuel use growing rapidly
6 climate change indicators are on the rise.Like CO2 ,heat,glacier melting etc.
Economic trends :-
Global economy continue to grow
World trade rises sharply
Foreign direct investments inflow decline
Weather-related disasters near a record
Steel surging
The inflows of foreign direct investment from 1970-2004 show that there is a general decline of investment from industrial countries.Is the industrialization a failure ?Or is it that they are not investing globally?

The foreign direct investment from 1970-2004 (10 yr interval)billion 2003 dollars from UNCTAD
Year Total Industrial countries Low/middle income countries
1970 50 37 14
1980 108 91 17
1990 271 222 49
2000 1471 1174 297
2004 601 315 286

Weather related disasters a record in 2004:-
105 billion pound economic loss due to natural disasters.Storms,tornados,floods,heat waves,extreme cold waves.12000 people lost lives.December 2004 earthquake in Sumatra and subsequent tsunami in Indian ocean sweeped away 280000 people in 11 countries in a matter of few hours and millions left homeless.In summer monsoons of 2004 2200 people were killed in India,Nepal and Bengladesh.Dakka was submerged under water for 40 %.China and Carebean lost 2000 lives in summer floods.In yangtse basin 85 % of forest cover was clearcut,14 million people displaced in floods an d4.5 million Ha of cropland destroyed.Rain surged down barren slopes of Hiti and local forests stripped for fuelwood.From 198 onwards 110 -205 events of severe floods occurred the world over.Deforestation,erosion,irrigation interfering river drainage ,global climatic changes and filling of wetlands and fields for construction works etc have all contributed to this.Southern US and Caribbean was hit by a string of hurricanes in 2004 Charlie alone causing 20 lilllion dollar loss.cyclones in Japan,landslides environmental disasters were on the record in 2004.The economic loss in 2004 was 104.6 billion 2003 dollars which had a similar figure in 1998 (106.7).
Health and social trends:
Population continue to rise steadily
Number of refugees decline
HIV/AIDS crisis widening worldwide
Cigarette production dropped
Conflict and peace trends:-
Violent conflicts unchanged
Military expenditure surges
Peacekeeping expenditures soar high
Mixed progress on reducing nuclear arsenals

SPECIAL ENVIRONMENT FEATURES
1 Mammals on decline
2.Global ice melting increases
3.Wetlands dry up
4.Forest loss continues
5.Air pollution still big problem

MDG(Millennium development goals) are :-
1.Eradicate poverty and hunger
2.Achieve universal primary education
3.Promote gender equality and empower women
4.Reduce child mortality
5.Improve maternal health
6.combat HIV/AIDS ,malaria and other diseases
7.Ensure environmental sustainability
8.Develop a global partnership for development

In 1903,Sir Edgar Wallace called the atmosphere the great aerial ocean.It protects all life,connects everything with everything else and has regulated our temperature for 4 bilion years. The weather is what we experience every day.Climate is the um of all the weathers over a certain period for a region or for the planet as a whole.The troposphere of the earth which is 10 Km in height ,slightly above the Mt Everest, has only a little part (bottom one third)of breathable air.Beyond that the strato,meso and thermosphere has no breathable air.The keeling curve of CO2 concentration in ppm atop Mt Launa loa,Hawai between 1958 -2000 showed a change from slightly less than 315 to over 370 .All these carbon when it goes from atmosphere reaches carbon sinks ,including you and me,all living things and ocean,soil,even rocks.That is the earth .The orbit of earth at present is not very elliptical and there is only 6 % difference between January and July temperatures.In one lakh years there is an orbital cycle of earth which changes the intensity of sunrays reaching earth.Another cycle due to tilt on earths axis lasts 42000 years and a third shortest cycle changes in 22000-25000 years due to wobble of earthon its axis.In this ,the earths axis shifts frm pole star to vega affecting intensity of seasons.When vega (Dhanishtaadi) marks true north winters will be terribly cold and summers scorchingly hot.This was known through Milanchovich . to western world only in 1941 .With sunspot cycles of 11 years the earth temperature vary.More the sunspots more is the warming of earth.But it does not affect the life on earth in dangerous proportions.The present stratospheric cooling by ozone hole and tropospheric warming by increased greenhouse gases is mainly manmade disasters due to industrial revolution.Today we face a rate of change thirty times faster because the living things need time to adjust speed is important as scale when it comes to climate change.For more than 10000 years human beings have been deforesting earth.And a great flood in BC 3104 is recorded both in Indian and Mayan calendars which sweeped of the great urban port cityin the Rann of cutch,Dwaraka .And the new cities developed in 3100 in Mesopotamia ,on its southern end.Now carbon,oil,solar energy are used indiscriminately and disproportionately which had lead to the speeding up of the climate change and nine out of ten warmest years ever recorded occurred since 1990.(pp70.we are the weathermakers .The story of global warming.Tim Flannery Penguin books 2006).
The rise in temperature had started in 1970 itself.1976 and 1998 had two rapid rises.The 1976 one occurred when scientists drilled the oldest coral porites in Mainana in pacific nation of Kiribati.Ashift in jet stream, changes as far as southern Australia and Galapagos in pacific ocean on equator 1000 kms off south American coast recorded by national geographic.In 1830 Darwin visited here.In 1977 the native finch perished in draughts only 180 survived of the 1300.Of them 150 were males and tough competition for mates in the spring and only the bigbeaked variety survived.1998 is tied up with El Nino –La nina cycle ,a 2-8 year long one which brings climatic changes.
El nino means the new child,Christ coined by Peruvian fisherfolk who noticed warm currents during Christmas visiting the fishing grounds.La nina is the new girlchild that is the cooling period in ocean of south America.La nina phase has winds blowing westward across pacific pushing warm surface water tocoast of Australia and to its north.Then the cold Humbolt current is able to surface off pacific coast of south America carrying the nutrients that feed the prolific fishery in the world,the anchovetta.
El nino phase begin with weakening of tropical winds allowing warm surface water to flow back eastwards overwhelming the Humbolt and releasing humidity to atmosphere which brings floods to the normally arid Peruvian deserts.Droughts strike Australia and south east Asia.El nino when severe devastate 2/3 rd of globe with droughts ,floods and extreme weather.1997-98 was a severe El nino year.As greenhouse gases build up in atmosphere we will experience persistent El nino like conditions.It is the bird watchers,nature and animal watchers who have recorded the climate changes first.In India it has a very long history.In England the first record is between 1736-1947 when a family recorded the date the first frog and toad croaked on their estate every year .In 1850 no such records are there.Over the last 55 years over the globe the records are strong .The species are shifting to the pole by an average of 6 KM per decade and retreated up mountainsides at rate of 6.1 meter per decade .Spring activity has advanced 2.3 days per decade.These trends accord with scale and direction of temperature increase by greenhouse gas and is called global fingerprint of climate change.CO2 is driving nature Polewards with a lash.Tiny marine organisms called copepods,nonmigratory species of 35 varieties of butterflies have changed habitat.The butterflies have perished in the south.The tropical birds of costa rica low lands in last 20 years moved 18.9KM northwards.Northern hemisphere seabird lay eggs on average 24 days earlier each decade .Budding and flowering of plants is 1.4 -3.1 earlier per decade and this denotes change in spring activity.Spring is warmer than it was 25 years ago.But number of cold days in winter is unchanged.The wintermoths therefore hatch upto 3 weeks before the oak bear their first leaves,and the caterpillars can survive only 2-3 days without food,and perish.Those that survive grow fast since no competition for food meaning birds have less time to find them .Even the remotest rainforests face the threats of global warming.
The subatlantic plankton pool is the base of foodchain.They thrive even in winter under the ice and the krill feed on them and complete their 7 year lifecycle.When there is krill there is penguin.Since 1976 the krills decreased 40 % per decade.Emperor penguin is half of what it was 30 years ago.Adelie penguin has declined by 70 %.Antartic is frozen continent surrounded by immenselyrich ocean.Arctic is frozen ocean surrounded by land.And is home of 4 million people.In Alaska the winters are 2 -3 degree C warmer than 30 yrs ago.The thundra,the collared lemming,the reindeer ,polar beers ,nanuk,ivory gull of Canada all face threat of racial extinction by about 2050.And north polar cryosphere will vanish forever with unknown consequences of climatic changes,all due to manmade greenhouse effect.

We Indians must know something about the protection of ocean and the coral reefs in it too.Coral reefs yield 30 billion US dollars each year to people who have no other resources to live.The citizens of five nations are protected by the fringing coral atolls which stand between them and the invading seas.Destroying the fringing reefs ,you destroy all the pacific nations just like bulldozing Holland’s dykes.The biodiversity of the corals also is destroyed by that action.Corals are marine equivalents of south Africa’s sand plains with great biodiversity.In 1857 Alfred Russel Wallace described coral gardens,medusae,fishes and many other in Ambon Hrbour and in 1990 none of them exits.Just effluent ,garbage,butchered remains of animals and goats are described by Tm Flannery.In 1997-98 El nino,rain forests of Indonesia burned like never before.Before that south western Sumatra had rich biodiversity of coral reefs.1997 saw red tide in Sumatra coast due to minute organisms fed on iron in the smog of the fire.The smog cloud over south east Asia in 2002 El nino was larger.About the size of US.It cut 10 % sunlight heated lower atmosphere and ocean.Aqaculture and corals alike are devastated from Indonesia to south Korea .Recovery is unlikely for these east Asian coral reefs.2004 ,scientists visiting Myrmidon reefs off coast of queensland for the 3 yr survey reported they looked as if bombed.The reef crest was bleached leaving a forest of dead white coral.only on deeper slopes did life survive.Before 1930 coral bleaching due to high ocean temperature was not heard of.In 1970 it was small scale.In 1998 El nino it was global dying.The great barrier reef was bleached 42 % in 1998 and 18 % suffered permanent damage.2002 El nino killed 90 % of all reefforming corals ,60 % of great barrier reef was affected .In 2006 cyclone larry came which destroyed 50000 homes in queensland and secured the reef for another year by its cooling effect on ocean water.
The golden frog of central American rain forests in costa rica is an example of loss of species quoted.In April May alone the males surface and mate with the females.The last male appeared in May 15th 1989 and no more of the race now exists.He was the first victim of global warming recorded.We killed it with our reckless use of coalfired electricity ,huge cars and causing global warming .
The gastric brooding frog of SEqueensland disappeared with in 6 years after its discovery in 1973 by researchers who wanted to know how the female frog converted the stomach into a nursery and delivered children through mouth.Amphibians face threat of extinction by climate as well as by experimental science.

1960 the Sahel disaster of Africa:-This was a marginal rainfall area and regional more rain and better soil allowing a living through fields and in dry lands a seminomadic camel herding life.The famines and droughts were common.And for decades the west argued that the reason is the people themselves who overgraze the camels,goats and cattle,gather firewood,destroy the covering vegetation,expose its dark soil and change its albedo and so on.But all these were proven wrong by painstaking studies in US between 1930-2000.The human –caused degradation was too small to trigger the climatic shift.The rise in sea-surface temperatures of Indian ocean increasing greenhouse gases was the real reason.The Indian ocean is the most rapidly warming ocean in the world and as it warms the conditions that generate the sahelian monsoon weaken.The rainfall is less.Food is less.People starved.From arid Africa (which generates ½ of global dust)particles scatter,absorb light,lower temperature ,carry nutrients to ocean and distant landsassisting in growth of plants,planktons and increase absorption of CO2.
In SW corner of west Australia rain fell during winter and get 100 cm annually.The farming is done here.The wheatbelt is here.vineyards also have come up.Before the European settlements the southwest was blanketed in thick vegetation called Kwongan(as konkan in India).Following rains the kwonkan become a vast wildflower garden and several species are jammed in a single hectare.1829-1975,the first 149 years of European settlement people cleared kwonkan for farmlands.From 1976 there is decrease in rainfall and problems for agricultural economy.In 1960 the farmers with goal of clearing million acres of kwongan scrub per year bulldozed and found only sterile stretches of sand and the most unfertile soil underneath the naturalvegetatin.The farmers did hydroponic gardening .Drilled in their wheat,dusted the sterile sand with nutrients waited for the never failing winter rains to come and water their seeds.By 2004 ,decades after nature refusingto water,wheat growing shifted westwards replacing dairy farms .
Winter rainfall has decreased and summer rainfall increased.Before te bulldozing the vegetation was taking up salt brought by westerlies and every drop from heavens and salt stayed in xalline form by them.But now ,when summer rains fell the salt from sea creep up kill everything .The first sign is salty taste inprevious sweet creeks.The water became undrinkable.Streamside vegetation died converting within a decade into salty drains.The perished farmers faced worst case of dry-land salinity .Neither science nor Government has given any solutions and damage bill is in billions (pp 117 Tim Flannery)Perth is now a thirsty city with 1.5 million people ,bankrupt wheat farmers trying to sell their fields .Less winter rainfalls causes less water in Perth’s catchmentsSince 1975 rain falls in light showers that soak into the soil and do not reach the dams at all.Now the Government is planning to squeeze out groundwater from Gnangara mound destrying its biodiversity also ,and to lay a desalination plant at cost of Australian dollar 350 million to suck ocean water and remove saline from it.All the cities in Australia are facing water crisis of some sort.The west coast of America also has water problems.
Most powerful El nino of 1997-98 the most powerful fatal hurricane in 200 years ,the hottest and deadliest European summer on record(2003) the first south Atlantic hurricane ever*(2002)unprecedented flooding in Mumbai (2005)worst storm season in US ,most economically devastating hurricane Katrina (2005)and Monica ,the most powerful cyclone ever recorded in Australia(2006) and Tsunami(2004) are eyeopeners for us.Warm water warm air and it carry extraheat .30 degree C air hold four times as much hurricane fuel as air at 10 degree C.Since 1950’s the hurricanes have changed their tracks.The example is the frequency of typhoons ravaging East China and Philippines sea has decreased since 1976 but number increased in south China sea.

In Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal there were fewer typhoons which is good for millions living near sea level in these regins.Dramatic decrease in number of cyclones in subantartic ocean south of latitude 40 but a modest increase in antartic ocean is seen.1996.97.98 consequitively US had hurricanes.In 1780 there was a great hurricane which was severe.In 2004 storms returned .4 major tropical storms crossed Florida in quick succession.
Ktrina-Florida,Gulf of Mexico,New Orleans
Rita-Texas
Started as thunderstorms in warm waters off Bahamas,became tropical storm ,a group of thunderstorms that circled until it developed a vortex.
In UK the recording of climate as records started in 1660, about 60 years after they had contact with Indian subcontinent and its trade and commerce based on searoutes and crop systems.1990’s was the warmest decade after that records began.The two nations most disadvantaged by climate change are US and Australia.

In India,apart from Gujrat and Western Orissa there is less drought than 25 years ago.Only NW India experiences heatwaves.2005 saw record monsoon rains and storms in Mumbai and surrounding regions which brought devastating floods and damaged offshore Mumbai high gas field.

Rising sealevel.

2/3 people on earth live within 80 KMs of the coast.Even a modest rise of sealevel would be disastrous from Manhattan to Bay of Bengal.The Asian tsunami of 2004 gives an indication of this.Netherlands is planning construction of superdykes ,Thames barrier is being strengthened for prevention of further damages by such catastrophe.In Bangladesh 1 million live within one meter of sealevel.Thermal expansion of ocean,glacier ice melting lead to rise in sealevels.Climatology is a science of prediction .From 2003 the Hadley center for climate prediction is set up in England.Half of the energygenerated after the world war 2 till date since Industrial revolution has been consumed in last 20 years by human activity.And it is too late to alter this situation in our world.But we have time still to avoid disaster and reduce probability of dangerous climatic upheavals and its effects.
We can limit the carbon dioxide emission.protect nature,trees,biodiversity,water resources,fields and forests withwild life and resortto more simpler and traditional lifestyles to reduce consumption of energy .This is what Gandhiji was advocating all along as a visionary .

Methane release from seashore

Ice crystals trap molecules of methane.Clathrates(Latin-caged) is the name for this ice which burns and contain gas under high pressure.When brought to surface these burn ignited.There is massive deposits of this in the seabed.368 trillion cubic meters of natural gas is recoverable in the world.The ocean floor has 10000-42000 trillion cubic meters compared to this energy.If this is touched and released colossal bursts of methane energy wil lhappen.The entire planet will be destroyed and all species extinct.That will be the end of civilization .Australia,the most urbanized natin on earth is having climate variations due to high energy consumption of its cities.The people all over and scientists all over warn about these consequences yet our local administrators are ready to explore ocean floor,drill it for treasures,bulldozer it for destroying old sethus under it.The methane energy of the caged pressurized variant is lurking below to devour everything in a catastrophic final deluge and man is foolish and selfish not to see this danger even after predictions by climatic experts.

Ozone is the earth’s sunscreen shieling us from 95 % of UV radiations.In 1928 industrial chemists invented HFCs for refrigeration,propellants in spraycans,in airconditioning units.1985 the use of it was 1.8 million tons.They increased chlorine levels five times the previous levels.The hole it punched in ozone layer south of 40 degree latitude exposed to them to skin cancer (southern chile,Argentina,Tasmania,south island of Newzealand)Even near the eqator the chances of skin cancer increased.25 years ago chance of getting melanoma was 1/250.Today it is 1/84 due to ozone depletion.Immune system and eyes are damaged by UV rays.Early cataract can occur .1987 Montreal protocol addressed the global pollution problem successfully.In 1997 the Kyoto protocol aimed at reduction of co2 emission by 5 %.But four nations failed to ratify it,including USA and Australia.Because supplying energy was profitable.Emissions trading creates a new currencycalled carbon dollar.Australia had the highest per capita greenhouse emission of any industrialized country ,25 % higher than USA.At present the Kyoto protocol is the only international treaty to combat climate change.

Can we find solutions to problem of global warming while continuing to use fossil fuels?
Carbon is locked in coal for hundreds and millions of years and will remain there for more millions more if we refuse to dig it up,just for the sake of profits.

How to solve ?
Wind power and turbines is used by Denmark .In China windfarms contribute to global electricity grid.3000 megawatt of windpower is enough to power a small city.Solar hot water,thermal and photovolcaic cells is another alternative suggested.The average home requires only 1.4 kilowatts of power to run a photovolcaic cell .It operates best in summer and one need generate only what one needs.Japan is using this.Sun is a nuclear power at a distance.Earth based nuclear power is an alternative choice .From 2004 May the world is considering this .It does not emit carbon dioxide.India has reactors under construction.China also is seriously considering this option.Geothermal reservoirs of molten mantle of earth is suggested by some.The decarbonising the grid is decentralizing power and empowering individuals.

We need not wait for the govt but can start doing it at home.

Use solar energy.
Buy a hybrid fuel car.
Select a aircraft that fly lower so that co2 consumptiion is less (4%) and average flight time over Europe vary less than a minute.
If we can cut our personal emission by 70 % ,the schools,companies,farms etc can also do that at a higher level
Start a movement in the locality
Use handmade /herbal/natural things
Use organic manure and protect the livestock
And many others depending upon the region located.
Use biofuel for energy needs .Biofuels are derived from biomass ,that is living organisms,and metabolic products.Like hay,corn,plant leaves,grass,dung and urine of animals etc.They are better than fossil fuels(coal,oil,gas) because burning biofuel does not increase the carbon dioxide in atmosphere.The slash-burn agriculture and the bioproducts of domestic animals for energy was thus a very scientific protective method which Indians used for millennia.Liquid biofuel is the ethanol.Level of carbon dioxide have increased from 280 to 385 ppmv since 1750,which is 37 % and this is due to burning of fossil fuels and still people are drilling oceans to get fossil fuel .While I write this Arabian sea is being drilled for it at Cochin and no one thinks that we are digging our own grave in two ways by disturbing the depths of that ocean .Most of Kerala’s coastlands are below sealevel and at or slightly above sealevel.
Another thing we can do is protect our tree and grow more forests and trees .

My health village scheme (Music therapy in education,management and administration Readworthy publications 2008) is intended for the beginning of it at a local level.Planting nutritious fruit trees of the local varieties in each home and school and roadside and helping forestation and protection of biodiversity by social co-operation etc are possible by us without any Government help.Only when it is a policy decision we need approach a politician/Government agency for help.Self help is the best help.

In 100 ways to change the world Johan Tell says call the politician as first and last (1 and 100).The reason is ,we have no power to make policies and we can say that such and such are the problems and such and such policies would help the nation.If he is committed and if what you point out is for the benefit of all your ideas may be put into policy decisions and you can help the world.That is the first .If even after several calls and requests for help ,he doesn’t heed ,the 100th (the last)call is to tell him that we are withdrawing our support and vote for you and that will do the trick.( 100 ways to save the world.Johan Tell.Bonnier books 2007)

The deforestation had been due to the following reasons
1cattle ranching because of Europes appetite for processed meat.
2.Activity of farmers encouraged by state to settle in forestlands and the slash and burn agriculture.
3.fires,mining,road and railway construction
4.logging ,legal and illegal
5.large scale commercial agriculture as livestock foodsources and estates etc which are monocultures and the biodiverse forests are destroyed for this economic activity which is shortlived.
About 117000 sq KM of rainforest is destroyed each year and rainforest cover on globe is now only 5 % and the carbon dixide level is more because of this.
The CO2 and greenhouse gas emissions of each country is assessed.USA is the first and the worst polluter .Second is China and third is EU.The order is as follows with India in 5th place.
USA
China
EU
Russia
India
Japan
Germany
Brazil
Canada
Uk UK IS THE LEAST POLLUTOR.

Greenhouse gas emission including land use change is as follows:
USA
EU
China
Indonesia
Brazil
Russian federation
India
Japan
Germany
Malayasia
(UK is Only 13th)
So all of share the responsibility for killing our own earth and our own life on it.
The warming of climate ,the global rise in sea level and co2 increase etc are more after 1950 and scientists have found that man and his greed alone is responsible for this.

Sealevel rising

IPCC tird assessment report predicted that by 2100 the rise will by by 9-28 cms .NASA reports a sealevel rise on average 3 mm every year between 1993 and 2005.Tht is 3.6 cms over 12 years.Fron 1961-2003 over 43 yrs the rise was only 7.46 cms .Oceans rise when there is thermal expansion.Warm watertakes more space.second reason is melting of ice and glacier by global warming.The third cause is reduction in salinity as more freshwater added by melting ice.Freshwater is less dense and takes more space than salinewater.
Apart from the entire coast of kerala the other major cities endangered by rising sea level are
Tokyo
Shanghai
Hongkong
Mumbai
Calcutta
Buenos Aires
St Petersburg
Newyork
Miami
London
Many small islands in Indian and Pacific ocean ,like the Maldives,Carteret island in Pacific (which will be the first to be lost)By 2015 this island with its 2500 inhabitants will be lost forever is the prediction(pp96 The A-Z of global warming Simon J Rosser.Schmaall world publishing 1988).
How do you think the Indian astronomers knew the cyclical nature of climate and the great world cycles of yuga ,kalpa etc? Simply by experience and observation and deduction they have known the eccentricity of earths orbit around sun and the perihelion at Makaram 1st and aphelion on Karkitakam 1st.(Now the West place it on 3rd January and 4th July based on the region of Greenich)The earth is close to sun in summer of southern hemisphere and winter in northern hemisphere. It is farthest from sun when the northern hemisphere has its summer and southern has its winter.The tilt of earths axis between 22.1 to 24.5 degree (currently 23.5) on its orbital plane cause cycle of 40000 years .Now the tilt is becoming more upright from 23.5 to 22.1 and there is a climate change.The tilt causes the seasonsTilt greater,severe warmer summer and cooler winters.Less tilt,cooler summer and milder interWhen cooler summers happen icemass formed.Ice has reflective surface and reflects sun’s energy back to space keeping temperatures in poles cool.If the Greenland ice melts completely the sea level will raise by 4.5 to 6 meters .
Precession of equinox is the earths wobble around its axis and has a cycle of 26000 yrs.The perihelion and aphelion then changes completely.Now the southern hemisphere is tilted towards sun at its perihelion (Makaram or Utharaayana)but by 26000 years this will reverse.This is called ayanaamsa by Indian astronomers and precision of equinox by the west.
The ocean thermohaline circulation(OTH) is the ocean conveyor belt ,meridional overturning circulation(MOC) and these are terms used for a system of large currents that bring warmer water from equator to northern hemisphere and returns colder water back to equator.It depends both on temperature and the salt and hence the name.London is 51 .30 degree north of equator as Saskatoon in Canada.Saskatoon is covered by ice about 5 months of year during winter.Glasgow and Hudson bay in Canada are in same latitude,and the moderate climate of Europe is maintained by the warm drifts from equator.The transport of ocean nutrients for marine life also is due to OTH.OTH drives the north Atlantic drift while winds drive the gulfstream .(That is why people around the eqator knew the monsoon and the ocean currents and the west did not know it)..The currents are affected by the global warming as it has slowed by 30 % though it is within natural variability of changes.

Earth’s population growth

Current 6,500,000,000
20 yrs ago 4,000,000,000
BY 2050 expected 9,000,000,000
This contribute to global warming,energy needs,food consumption,more of fossil fuel pollution,a vicious cycle .Water,food and climate ,will be problems for the entire life on earth.
Billions of people in 1830 was 1.
1930. 2
1960 it was 3,
1975 became 4.
1987 5
2007 6.5
By 2050 expected 9.(credit population institute figures)

Unless we use renewable energy to substitute the fossil fuel we may not be able to break the vicious circle,
The renewable eergy is that can be regenerated
1.solar power(Akkaasa)
2.wind power(Vaayu)
3.hydropower(aapas) which includes hydroelectric,tidal and wave powers
4.geothermal(agni) from heat of earth.
5.biomass (prithwi)
These are the five elemental powers which can be regenerated by recycling.

Nuclear power does not produce greenhouse gases .Therefore some nations are thinking about it as alternative.
The ancient astronomers of India were aware of a 11 yr cycle of sun and an increased magnetic and sunspot activity called the ucha or maximum of the sun and then a manda or minimum period of quiescence.With sunspots the sun activity is maximum .The last solar maximum wasin 2000-2002.Helioseismology is an ultrasound technique for the sun’s body.The NASA with it predicted the suns next solar cycle to begin in 2007 -2008 and 30-50 % increase than the current cycle with a peak in 2012 (cycle 24).The solar radiation is not the reason for global warming but anthropogenic forces(manmade)are the cause has been proved.Temperatures of last 1000 years remaining constant and from 1800 a sharp upward rise is the evidence for it.The 1990’s were the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year.For last 150 years man has created this problem.
2005 and 2007 were hottest like 1998,and even more and 2002.2003,2006 were very hot.
Global warming increases mosquitoes,pathogens like malaria and mosquitoes can survive in a wide area and higher altitudes with warm temperatures.A population of 40-60000000 in Africa will be prone to vector-transmitted malaria with a temperature rise of 2 centgrade.
Weather changes like heatwaves,floods,droughts and hurricanes are due to global warming.In 2003 before tsunami Europe had heatwave that killed 35000 people.15000 were in Paris alone.August 2007 terribe fires raged Greece.June 2007 floods and rains in north of England happened .Danube,Rhine and Rhone overflowed.Increased rain in northern hemisphere and reduced rain in the tropics and subtropics happened.
Droughts in Australia,USA,(California)and Missisipppi are having effects of drought.May 2007 saw drought in Australia .Queensland and Sydney are under threat.

A tropical cyclone is a low pressure system that has a cyclonic surface wind circulation.If it occurs in North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific ocean it is called a hurricane.In Northwest Pacific,to the east of 160 degree longitude it is called a typhoon.It is called a cyclone in Southwest Pacific ocean and North and Southwest Indian ocean.Data from 1851 is available and from 1944 are with aircraft monitoring and from 1970 it is with satellites..There were five or more hurricanes over four years in 1950s ,three different years in 1960s,and 1990s and over two years till 2000,but 2004 saw six major hurricanes and 2005 saw seven.2006 was quieter with two major hurricanes.2007 had 13-16 named storms,7-9 hurricanes ,3-5 major hurricanes.
The most active was 2005.28 named storms ,15 were hurricanes,7 of them major.This beat record of 1969 with 12 hurricanes ,5 of which were major.In 1950 eleven hurricanes ,eight of which were major.50s 60s and 90s were active hurricane periods.1995-1999 a record thirtithree hurricanes recorded.1991-1994 was the quietest after the 1940s.Atlantic hurricanes alternates between quiet and active period of activity over 20-25 yr periods.Typhoons increased since 1980s after a decrease in activity from 1960-80.The activity cycle is thius similar to Atlantic hurricanes.When there is ocean warming hurricanes become stronger.The destructive power of hurricanes has increased since mid 1970s when there was rapid increase in the global ocean and land temperatures.Just after the tsunami of 2004 there had been a record year of hurricanes in North Atlantic with 27 named storms ,7 major,and four reaching category five status.
Category 5 storms of 2005:-
Emily hit Mexico in 18th July 2005
Katrina developed in August and made landfall in Lousiana and Mississippi ,of category 3 strength
Rita developed in September 2005 ,close to Florida on 20th,causing storm-force winds upto 76 mph on Key west.It strengthened and tracked to Mexicao and reached category status with 175 mph

Wilma arrived in October and produced 60 inches rain passing over Yucatan peninsula in Mexico and made landfall in Florida as category 3 storm
In 2007 the hurricane Dean damaged Jamaica as it made its way to Mexico.

We have altered the weather and water cycles and caused the extinction of biodiversity on face of earth and are heading for our own extinction by own deeds.
Animals under threat are the polar bear,sea turtles,whales,giant panda,orang-utan,elephant,tigers,birds of different varieties,pikas a small hamstersized flowergathering mammal in Alpines of western USA ,SW Canada and Asia.varietes of frogs including the golden frog of costa Rica,penguins,coral reefs with several symbiotic organisms depending upon them.We will soon have the same fate as these formsof life.

What we can do?
1.turn off all electrical appliances when they are not in use-the phone chargers,TV,DVD,which take 10 -60% of normal power even when in standby.Make sure that the plugs are easily accessible to turn off easily.
2.Standby buster and energy tracker.Turn off the appliance with remote handset .The equipment functions via radio waves and have a playback time of 6 months.It measures your energy consumption and allow you to monitor the power consumption.
3.Buy energy –efficient appliances Don’t keep the fridge near a cooker so that it takes more energy to keep cool.
4.Turn off lights when it is not needed.
5.Boil water that is just enough for use.
6.Turn down household thermostat down 1 degree centigrade to reduce carbon blueprint and to save money
7.Use solar energy whenever possible
8.Insulate properly to prevent heat loss
9.Take a shower .It use les energy than a bath
10.Recycle rubbish to reduce energy requirements.Like the wastes,paper,cardboard,tin,aluminium cans ,glass bottles and jars and plastic cans .UK is doing this (www.recyclenow.com)
11.Use green energy.
12.carbon free travel and holiday.(vacation)
Reduce the carbon dioxide emission offsets to zero.
The golden standard of a Clean development mechanism(CDM) is the objectives of the Kyoto protocol.Keep the planet clean,pure,lessen the greenhouse gases,and keep it cool and safe for life to continue as before.In the book Flexibility in climate policy Tim Jackson,Katie beg and Stuart Parkinson has described how to make the Kyoto mechanisms work the joint implementation(JI) its objectives ,social and environmental aspects ,methodology and case study research.The many project case studies using biomass and wind energy are interesting and we should be thinking in those lines and using less of fossil fuels.This is the only way to do away with the havoc caused by the Industrial revolution on the globe in such a short period.

Conflict scenario from 2010-2030 anticipated –Peter Scwartz and Doug Randall (Oct 2003)are the effects of climate changes and not climatic /weather changes.


In Europe they reported migration from ``Holland &Germany to Italy &Spain by 2020 and by 2007 itself the lowlying coastal areas of Holland are being evacuated due to violent storms.Melting of Himalayan glaciers have relocated Tibetans.The rising sealevels & floods people are migrating.By change in the THC the northern latitudes including UK will become colder drier and akin to Siberia.Deaths from war,famine ,weatherrelated disastersare predicted by the Pentagon report of Schwartz and Randall.Riots of interal conflicts in India,South Africa,Indonesia : Elsewhere countries exploiting resources of others to feed and care for their own populations ,conflict over water resource in Nile,Danube,Amazon basins,USA &Europe will be mighty fortresses barring entry to millions of starving people ,Scandinavians will move south.Africans will move to south Europe.China’s huge population and food needs will make it more vulnerable.Bengladesa will be uninhabitable due to rising sea level which will contaminate inland water supplies.( On 25th May 2009 when Aila struck kolkata and Ganga swelled with its tributaries in sunderbans breaking embankments in 100 spots, and 24 pargannas bore the brunt ,and 100 irrigation dams smashed ,inundating scores of villages at least some might have remembered this prediction!).When fossil fuel is dangerous to human life on earth,and hydroelectric power is destroyed by lack of water and destruction of dam reservoirs people think of other measures of energy sources.The Pentagon report therefore says that Israel,china,India,Pakistan will be ready to use nuclear arsenals and japan,south korea,Egypt and germany ,in addition to iran and north korea will develop nuclear capability.
The interesting part is that this is not a climatic prediction,but the impact or effects of climatic changes on various parts of the globe on a regional basis.So,what was wrong in Varahamihira and his predecessors giving this type of predictions to rulers and people to be on the look out for problems and solve them before they came ?The west is gradually adopting the ways of the ancient east,because only now have they got the scientific knowledge of the weather,of the seas and its relation to human activity.
The role of eclipses and earthquakes due to expansion of waterbodies during eclipses were predicted by Indian astronomers.If we look at the following figures you can see how the major disasters of earthquakes wiping away populations had occurred on either new or full moon days.
2001 Gujarat earthquake killing 20000 people on new moon day
Dec 26 in 2004 the famous tsunami on a full moon day.
26th September Japan kurile island earthquake on new moon day.
Dec 26th 2003 new moon day Iran earthquake kills 30000 people.

The European travels to India in 15th to 16th century and the events thereafter was their study period of the human behaviour and knowledge of sciences .It took nearly 400 years for them to accept it,but by that time,they had altered the entire global weather by the greed for more power and we have to face the consequences of what we call the great industrial revolution.We have enjoyed its good effects so far.Now we have to suffer the bad effects too. For surviving the climatic changes and to avert the catastrophe of manmade changes to the weather We have to
1 understand the problem of the gravity of the human-made climate change
2.We have to break out of te present impasse.
We include all of us,and the policy makers,opinion formers,the rich,powerful and influential in corporate business ,academic and scientific institutions and leading nongovernmental institutions .

I am a music lover.Music integrates everything.And intelligent time measure and design is part of music,medicine and astronomy all of which I have learnt.Music is creatively alive and is very precise about counting.Timing and tuning to shared reference points are fundamental to powers of live music.It has a timeless stability and political relevance of equality anf oneness of everything and a very peaceful eternal dharma of sustenance of life.All conflicts can be solved with such peaceful intelligent integrating processes.And if science can make us aware of the dangers of global warming it can find out a way out of it too.Therefore ,all of us together can solve the problem,if we so desire.If we survive,it will be by our combined effort.If the civilization and humanity perish it will be by our shared action of selfishness.What do we want ourselves to do is our own decision.